96 hours — that was the timeline Western intelligence services gave before the Ukrainian state would fall. Russian estimates were even shorter. Those so-called “three days” will soon become three years. But if you think seriously about it: how could the West, such a formidable player with intelligence capabilities of enormous scale, have gotten it so wrong? Why was Russia so confident in its miscalculations? Where, exactly, did they all go wrong? The answer is simple.
Throughout all the years of our independence, both Russia and the West considered only the condition of our state, our politics, and our institutions. Neither of them suspected that for several years already, Ukraine had possessed a vital, secret component, one capable of preserving the country in its most critical hour, and impossible to measure. That component is Ukrainians themselves.
For years, the West and Russia clearly identified the weakness of our government. They saw the absence of vision and strategy, the level of corruption in the country; they saw that after 30 years of independence, the country still functioned like an old Soviet state, built for control and in no way oriented toward productivity, creativity, or initiative. That is precisely why the Russian leadership was so bold and self-assured, bribing officials in Ukraine, sending its agents here. They already understood that “taking” Ukraine would be easy. But they failed, and again, thanks to our secret component, thanks to our people.
Absolutely everyone, both the West and Russia, underestimated, or simply overlooked, the fact that over the past 30 years a new, conscious, non-Soviet segment of society had emerged in Ukraine. These are people between the ages of 25 and 45 who were either born or came of age in an independent Ukraine. The vast majority of them had managed to see the world, achieve a certain level of success in their work or business, and crystallize their values and sense of dignity. So when the full-scale war began, this asset became visible, first and foremost to ourselves, and then to the entire world. For the first time, we saw just how powerful and formidable the leadership capital within our society truly was. The war demonstrated that we genuinely possess this cohort of people who, in the face of an existential threat to the entire nation, are capable of organizing themselves independently, without consulting the authorities, without seeking their support, without waiting for instructions or calls to action. Drawing on a national internal leadership forged especially over the past ten years, Ukrainians independently identified problems, sought solutions, and found them in coordination with other groups, without appealing to the state.
At every level, thousands of horizontal, self-organized networks emerged, filling the functional gaps left by the state. This was the real Ukraine, the genuine new civil society that allowed our country to hold the enemy back. A tremendous self-organization that, despite the state’s failure in the first weeks of the war, helped keep the country standing and kept a pulse on the supply and procurement of everything necessary from across the planet, bypassing state barriers and bureaucracy. Recall that this effect was felt across every front: military, media, informational, ideological, business, volunteer, and civic. Above all on the military front, where a ferocious energy burned in those who went out to meet the enemy face to face, risking their lives. Without that energy, without our soldiers, there would be no Ukraine today. But it exists, continues to fight, to function, and to strive for victory, for development, and for changes that can only be achieved under one condition: by making human capital the foundation.
Look now at Ukrainians spreading across the world. Watch how, within short spans of time, they begin to create success stories at every level and in every field. It is because we are trained to survive and to produce results under any conditions. This is what could detonate Ukraine’s development like an explosion. This is the most important asset through which the country could defeat the enemy and achieve success — yet the state does not bet on it and does not see the real potential of this tremendous force. Those people who have remained in Ukraine, who have talent, a name, and a reputation, who can and want to do something meaningful for their country, they are the most progressive leadership stratum of our society. A capital on which Ukraine could ignite in its development, in private initiative, in its energy, and defeat the enemy — yet more and more often it is ignored or simply neutralized: through searches, discrediting, and so on. Because if Ukrainians were truly given freedom, this secret component of Ukrainian success would be activated to its full power. It is thanks to this that we held on in the first weeks of the great war and it is thanks to this that we could develop in a colossal way in the future.
Source: "The Ukrainska Pravda" news portal.